As part of the first Global Alumni Meeting, that took place at IPADE’s Guadalajara campus, Pankaj Ghemawat, professor of the Stern School of Business and the IESE Business School, offered a key lecture – The Future of Globalization – in which he revisited what has been happening in the recent years in terms of globalization and what can be expected in the long run, as well as the possible implications of globalization for Mexico.
He highlighted that “even as Globalization has decreased since 2016, the world is more globalized than before the 2008 financial crisis.” It is clear, however, that facts such as the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States and the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union, offer an outlook that is not very favorable in terms of globalization.
According to Pankaj, the commercial crisis of the 1930s may give us a hint of what could happen if the world were to enter a similar crisis. About this his opinion is that, “if during that crisis global commerce did not stop, it is reasonable to think that it will not stop in the next decade.”
As way of conclusion, Professor Pankaj Ghemawat stated, “Globalization has not experienced an acute reduction, but even if a commercial war were to provoke a dramatic fall on globalization the impact of international commerce would still remain significant, and the commerce patterns would not change too much.”
As for the implications of protectionist postures that seem to put at risk globalization and the future perspectives he said that, “If there is an important global growth, this growth will be controlled by the emerging economies.”
Finally, he showed data that indicates that Mexico has performed a good commercial role at the global level. The country’s Real Competitiveness index has been greater than the one expected for over 10 years, in addition to the constant increase of Mexican exports.
“Taking measures to strengthen commercial relations; taking advantage of the cultural links, emphasizing international integration, fighting corruption and improving infrastructure”, are Pankaj Ghemawat’s recommendations as fundamental conditions for globalization to show its positive face in the economy and development of the Country.